The Hard Lesson: “Big Data” Can Still Be Wrong
In the first half of 2025, we learned fast that clickstream-only approaches break down when you try to serve enterprise needs at scale.
When we rolled this out across 3,500+ brands, we saw gaps that mattered:
- country-level coverage issues
- uneven representation across industries
- missing nuance in specialized topic areas
- weird outliers that didn’t pass the sniff test
If you’ve ever looked at a platform showing millions of searches for an obscure query, and then compared it to what Google reports, you know exactly what I mean.
This is the dirty secret of clickstream in general:
Clickstream can be huge and still be biased.
Bias in panel composition, device coverage, region coverage, vertical skew… all of it shows up eventually.
And if your job is to guide millions of dollars of content investment, “eventually” is too late.
So we did what we always do when the data doesn’t hold up:
We rebuilt the approach.
The Pivot: A Hybrid Model Grounded in a Simple Premise
One insight changed everything for us:
Just because ChatGPT exists,
people’s problems haven’t changed.
The WHAT hasn’t changed. The HOW and WHERE have.
That premise became the anchor.
People still want the best running shoes, the cheapest flights, the right compliance framework, the top CRM-whatever your world is.
What’s changing is:
- the interface (prompts vs. keywords)
- the journey (follow-ups, deeper exploration)
- the endpoints (AI answers vs. ten blue links)
So instead of trying to “invent” demand, we asked:
What if we use the most reliable base we have for intent demand, traditional search, and model the shift?
Google still represents the majority of global search activity, and it has something AI engines don’t provide: a mature demand baseline by topic.
So we moved to a hybrid approach:
- Use Google demand as the base signal for “what people want”
- Apply intelligent adjustments to estimate “how much of that is happening in AI Search”
- Use our prompt corpus to understand how AI queries cluster, roll up, and translate into topic demand
That’s the core model architecture that got us much closer to “enterprise-grade.”
The Breakthrough: Replacing Assumptions with Real Calibration Data
Then something big happened.
A National Bureau of Economic Research paper (“How people use ChatGPT”) introduced a level of behavioral grounding that simply wasn’t available before. In plain terms: it gave the market a better window into how AI tools are being used, not just that they’re being used.
For us, that mattered because it let us do what every model needs at some point: stop guessing and start calibrating.
So we plugged that data into our hybrid framework and updated the adjustment layers accordingly.
And because this entire space is full of black-box metrics, we made a decision that’s a little unusual: We shared the methodology publicly.
Not because it’s “nice.” But because enterprise SEO needs defensible numbers, and the industry needs standards.
What’s New in This Latest Release
The version we’re rolling out now is the most refined iteration of that hybrid model.
Here’s what you should expect (and what we optimized for):
1. Better intent rollups from messy prompts
AI prompts don’t map cleanly to one keyword. This release improves how we distill prompts into:
- core topic intent
- essential modifiers (audience, constraints, location, timeframe)
- aggregated “demand buckets” that actually match how enterprise teams plan content and measure opportunity
(If you’ve used our prompt research capabilities, this is the same philosophy: don’t chase every variation, own the underlying intent.)
2. More consistent behavior across countries and industries
The clickstream-only model struggled here. The hybrid model improves consistency by grounding estimates in a stable baseline and applying calibrated adjustments, so you don’t get wildly inflated demand in one market and undercounting in another.
3. A model you can explain to your stakeholders
If you can’t explain it, you can’t defend it.
This release is designed to be “boardroom explainable”:
- what the baseline is
- what gets adjusted
- why the adjustments exist
- what changed between versions
Why We’re Being So Transparent About This
Because “AI Search Volume” is about to become one of the most abused metrics in the industry.
It’s easy to publish a number. It’s much harder to publish a number you’d be willing to defend in front of:
- your CMO
- your analytics team
- your data science org
- your finance partners
- your agency or procurement process
If AI Search is going to be a real channel (and it is), we need demand metrics that don’t feel like magic.
That’s also why Clarity ArcAI is built as an end-to-end system: prompts, visibility, optimization, performance, and measurement have to connect… otherwise “demand” becomes a vanity metric instead of a planning input.
What We Want From You
We’d love for you to try the updated estimates and tell us where they land for your reality:
- Do the numbers match your intuition across top topics?
- Are the rollups aligned with how you plan content clusters?
- Are there industries, niches, or markets where you think we should pressure-test harder?
This model is live because we believe it’s materially better, but we also know the fastest way to improve it is to put it in the hands of enterprise teams who live in the nuance.
If you’re already using ArcAI’s prompt research and visibility tracking, this update should make prioritization sharper and the “why this topic” conversation a lot easier.
Looking for an AI search solution to help prioritize AI efforts? Schedule a demo of seoClarity's Clarity ArcAI where you'll see first-hand how our end-to-end AI solution is helping brands turn AI search into a real channel for their organizations.